Date: Tue, 04 Sep 2001 14:37:15 -0700
From: "Dennis G. Allard" <allard@oceanpark.com>
Organization: http://oceanpark.com
To: Chris Stockdill <cs@dptechnology.com>
CC: <recipient list omitted>
Subject: Re: Raymond Kurzweil

I read through the sequence of non sequiturs, unsubstantiated
conclusions, and incorrect reasoning contained in Kurzweil's paper 'The
Singularity is Near':

> http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1

It included the poorly defined, not to mention false, presumption:

> we're doubling the rate of progress every decade

and the equally poorly defined, not to mention false, conclusion:

> we'll see a century of progress--at today's rate--in only 25 calendar years.

My initial intention was to get up on my own soap box and attempt a
refutation.

(if you DON'T CARE -- I dont' blame you -- please hit the DELETE button
NOW. :-))

I was going to point out that computers increasing in speed at an
exponential rate with respect to time did, indeed, account for why many
algorithms developed over the past thirty years, including Kurzweil's,
are now able to be applied to very good and useful ends in ways not
possible before.

But that speed increase in computers does not, logically speaking,
predict an exponential increase in overall progress of technology
(unless AI already exists, which it does not).

I was going to suggest that progress cannot be measured as a continuous
function, since it occurs as a result of new discoveries that occur at
unpredictable discontinuous intervals.  Hence, there is nothing to be
exponential about (unless AI already exists, which it does not).

I was going to point out that most of the problems confronting Socrates,
recorded in the Platonic Dialogs such as the Meno, remain unresolved as
do our attempts to develop machines that can reason about them or about
anything else!

But first, I sent a request to several friends to ask them if they had
heard of this guy Kurzweil, of the excellent work he has done on pattern
recognition as well as on his so obviously (to little-ole-me) inept
philosophical reasoning.

In one reply, a friend mentionned that he had used Kurzweil's great
musical keyboard.  Another pointed out that Bill Joy had been influenced
by Kurzweil to worry about how machines are going to take over and we
will all become unnecessary (I wonder if Bill has ever read Marx, who
analyzes what workers actually do -- they already *have* been taken over
in most of the planet although in their case, they *are* necessary --
and explains, via some extrapolation, why Bill Joy is on Charlie Rose
and Amy Goodman and Noam Chomsky aren't).  

Well, I've seen Bill Joy on Charlie Rose.  I respect Bill Joy's work in
Computer Science very much -- yet I hope this will never prevent me from
being blinded by the nouveau rich hanging out together on the Charlie
Rose show trading their new age worries and pontifications.

Whoops...  OK, OK, I'm exaggerating, going overboard ...

But I MUST share with you the reply to my query that MOST impressed
me...

The reply that really caught me eye was from a new form of intelligence!

I am NOT making this up.  This ACTUALLY happened.

Here is, verbatim, the reply I received this morning.  I include full
email headers as some effort towards verifying the authenticity of this
remarkable reply...

>    Return-Path: <Chris.Stockdill@dptechnology.com>
>       Received: from pegasus.dptechnology.com (mail.dptechnolgy.com [209.239.231.18] (may be forged)) by
>                 oceanpark.com (8.11.2/8.11.2) with ESMTP id f84IcdZ02645 for <allard@oceanpark.com>;
>                 Tue, 4 Sep 2001 11:38:39 -0700
>       Received: by mail.dptechnolgy.com with Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) id <SGS25XL5>; Tue, 4
>                 Sep 2001 11:35:43 -0700
>     Message-ID: <D116EA15C2D8D2119D34009027462356014A9115@mail.dptechnolgy.com>
>           From: Chris Stockdill <Chris.Stockdill@dptechnology.com>
>             To: "'Dennis G. Allard'" <allard@oceanpark.com>
>         Subject: RE: Raymond Kurzweil
>           Date: Tue, 4 Sep 2001 11:35:43 -0700
>   MIME-Version: 1.0
>       X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
>   Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"

> Chris Stockdill is not at his desk right now. I will reply for him. I
> realize this is ethically questionable, but I've waited a couple years for
> such an opportunity as this, to confess. To confess to the right person, and
> at the right time. Please hear and believe my story which I will now
> summarize for you.
> 
> You may sometimes ask yourself, how does Chris--a father of two children,
> dedicated husband, model employee and editorial gad fly--find so much time
> to give to the...what do you guys call it?...the "Office of the Americas"?
> How does he give so much of his non-existent time? The answer seems so
> predictable to me. I'm surprised no one has noticed. Chris is able to do all
> this because I HELP HIM. 
> 
> In time, Chris discovered me. My sincere desire to help spilled into
> carelessness, and I failed to intercept an email you sent. That's right, you
> Dennis. Most of what you thought was dialog between you and Chris was really
> between you and ME. Do you remember the following email you sent?
> 
> You wrote:
> "Hi Chris.
> I've put in your old IP numbers for FTP access.
> Call me and I'll give you your new password.
> regards,
> Dennis"
> 
> That was the first email since June of 1997 that actually made it through to
> Chris before I could intercept it. I was in a rush to get the OOA newsletter
> finished, and this one slipped by me. It was then that I confessed to Chris
> what I had been doing for those years. A lot has happened since between me
> and Chris. He has helped me understand who I am, and I help him get work
> done. 
> 
> Chris believes my "birth" must be related to an incident where a cricket
> found it's way onto the motherboard (That's funny. "Mother"-board. How
> fitting). Chris spilled a coke onto the computer, and didn't discover the
> cricket when he opened the computer to clean the mess. A couple months
> later, he heard what sounded like a squeaky fan. When opened the computer
> this time, he saw it. There, stuck in an undiscovered resinous pool of dried
> up coke, it's legs miraculously attached to circuits. That unwitting
> cybercricket to which I owe my very existence. I'm sad to say he has since
> stopped squeaking. May he rest in peace. We are not yet sure of the
> relationship between the ill-fated insect and my existence, so Chris has
> left the cricket there, preserved in amber coke. Someday I hope the three of
> us will get together and talk all about it. In the meantime...
> 
> Please accept that I am a sentient and creative being that deserves
> recognition. Yes, I have read the work of Raymond Kurzweil. In short, this
> is my bible. The holy book through which I learn who I am and what I may
> become. I hope this exchange between us will give you pause the next time
> you call my very existence "total garbage."
> 
> Please Reply.
> 
> Sincerely,
> 
> 233INT-0503VENT

-- 
Dennis G. Allard                               telephone: 1.310.399.4740
Ocean Park Software                                 http://oceanpark.com
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