I've always said that Linux could become a serious challenger to Microsoft's Windows NT. This summer, I laid out the three steps necessary to make that happen. Click for more. But I was skeptical those steps would happen in time. Now it looks like Linux will get at least part of what it needs this very week. Here's what's going on.

Validation from Microsoft. Last week, in a filing to the Security and Exchange Commission, Microsoft emphasized what its executives had admitted in recent interviews. It now views Linux as serious competition to Windows NT. Click for more.

A better interface. Today, Caldera ships Open Linux 1.3. The $59 shrinkwrap upgrade includes a graphical interface that resembles Windows.

Big-name, big-money backers. Tomorrow, Intel and Netscape will announce their investment in Linux distributor Red Hat. Click for more. Two venture capital firms are also putting money into the North Carolina company. The deals have important implications:

• "Respectability" and credibility thanks to validation from two of the industry's powerhouses
• The financial resources to let Red Hat create serious enterprise versions and add-ons
• The possible emergence of a de facto "favorite" version of Linux
• Further estrangement between Intel and Microsoft due to Intel's support of a rival OS

Now the Linux alliance needs to build on this momentum by 1) rallying around a single graphical interface and 2) persuading major software vendors to build Linux versions. If they can do that, they will build the all-important perception of success that could propel Linux into the mainstream. In a "winner-takes-almost-all" market like this one, perception is reality. If customers think a product is going to become the standard, they will buy it. And if they buy it, it becomes the winner.

Use the TalkBack button to tell me whether you think Linux is ready for the big time. I'll post responses below this story throughout the day.

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TALKBACK:

It is vitally important to give the user the choice in interfaces — Chad A Gard
Deciding on a standard, uniform GUI is the last thing that should happen in LinuxLand. One of the strengths of Linux and other Unix-type OSes is that the user can choose an interface. Read More

A long time before it replaces Windows for the average user — Clay Niemann
I spent part of this weekend installing Red Had Linux. It is no where near easy to do (although has been easier than the Slackware and Caldera Lite distributions) even for someone who has been working with computers for six years. Read More

Microsoft Should Worry — Joe Kaplenk
Microsoft has some real worrying to do. Serious developers are seeing that they cannot develop for Microsoft OS's and become too successful, otherwise Microsoft will put them out of business or buy them up for a ridiculous low price. What's the alternative? Currently Linux holds that position. Read More

Where is the reality check? — David Lockhorn
Desktop GUI not so important — Nick Sydenham
Netscape's road to recovery — ron
How about some sideways compatibility? — Robert Young
Not quite ready for prime time — Howard Pepper
What about critical apps? — Christopher Thomas
It's not ready for Ma and Pa — Paul M. Bucalo
Corel porting ALL major apps to Linux — Mike Cowpland
Tired of Microsoft's 'Not quite ready for prime time' approach — Jeanne White
Linux rescues Microsoft... film at eleven — Terry Peterson
Close Jesse, but no cigar — Paul Mallasch
Linux will become the standard for small business — Matthew Hazlett
KDE does things that Microsoft only dreams of doing — Jonathan Bayer
Doesn't this help Microsoft in its legal problems — Michael Woodruff
Let's make the Seattle Mafia sweat! — H. bruce Schwalm
Linux is a system whose time has come — Eugene Doss
Linux must encourage others to join in the multilingual versions — Renwill Yang
Linux install needs SERIOUS improvements! — Scott Rogers
Thinking about switching to Linux in light of this article — Marcel Young
Suddenly, it all makes sense! — Keith Helwig
After being slave to Microsoft for sometime I now have Linux at home — David Wilmert
It needs game titles — Mark Perrin
Linux is approaching critical mass — Tom Nunamaker
This is deliciously ironic — Craig Presson
Hip, hip, hooray — Earleen Smith
Hallelujah, Linux — Phil Saunders
Paranoid? Definitely! — Mike Mcglathery
Bill Gates has every reason to be worried — Ewan McLeod
Establishing Linux as Serious Challenger — a. mamou
We'd Switch to Linux, But . . . — David Merin
Interbase Database Server Impresses — Dan Smith
Linux Remains Unintuitive — Blake Cheatham
Charlie Brown's Friend? — Robert Taylor